Consumer Price Index in NCR declines to 124.3

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the National Capital Region (NCR) declined to 123.9 in May 2025 from 124.3 in April 2025 (2018=100). It marks the fourth consecutive month of decline following a gradual decrease from the peak level of 124.9 recorded in January 2025. 

From June 2024 to November 2024, the CPI in NCR generally showed an upward trend, rising from 121.2 in June to 123.7 in November. This upward movement continued in December, reaching 124.5, and peaked at 124.9 in January 2025. However, beginning February 2025, the CPI began to decline gradually, from 124.7 to 123.9 in May 2025. 

Over the 12-month period, the CPI increased by 2.1 index points, from 121.8 in May 2024 to 123.9 in May 2025. The CPI in NCR remained lower than the national level, which stood at 127.2 in May 2025.

The CPI of 123.9 in May 2025 indicates that, on average, prices of goods and services in the region have increased by 23.9 percent compared to the 2018 base year. In practical terms, a basket of goods and services that cost PhP100.00 in 2018 for a typical household in NCR would now cost PhP123.90 in May 2025. (Figure 1)
 

The inflation rate in NCR eases to 1.7 percent

After a sustained deceleration from December 2024 to March 2025, the inflation rate in NCR accelerated in April 2025 before easing to 1.7 percent in May 2025 from 2.4 percent in the previous month, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point decrease. On an annual basis, the May 2025 inflation rate was also lower than the 3.1 percent recorded in May 2024. (Figure 2)
 

At the national level, the headline inflation rate further slowed to 1.3 percent in May 2025 from 1.4 percent in April 2025.

A decline in inflation was observed in most of the 18 regions in May 2025. The largest deceleration was recorded in Region VII (Central Visayas), with a decrease of 1.1 percentage points. This was followed by the MIMAROPA Region, which registered a 0.6 percentage point drop. Region II (Cagayan Valley), Region VI (Western Visayas), and Region XI (Davao Region) each posted a 0.3 percentage point decrease in inflation.

Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels drive the deceleration of inflation  in NCR

The main driver of the inflation deceleration in NCR was the slower annual increase in the index of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels, which registered a 3.1 percent inflation rate in May 2025, down from 5.1 percent in April 2025. This commodity group contributed 74.4 percent to the overall downward trend in inflation for the month.

The restaurants and accommodation services commodity group was the second major contributor to the slower inflation in the region, as its inflation rate decelerated to 1.2 percent in May 2025 from 1.9 percent in April 2025. This was followed by the food and non-alcoholic beverages index, which declined to 2.2 percent in May 2025 from 2.5 percent in the previous month.

In addition, lower year-on-year growth rates were recorded in the indices of the following commodity groups in May 2025: 

1. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods, and services, 2.3 percent;

2. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 2.3 percent; and

3. Health, 1.5 percent;

In contrast, a slower annual increase was observed in the transport index, which registered a 0.1 percentage point decrease in May 2025 compared to the previous month.

The indices for the remaining commodity groups remained at their respective annual rates in May 2025. Information and communication, and financial services, continued to register a zero percent annual rate during the month.
 

Food Inflation in NCR continues its fourth consecutive month of deceleration at 
2.2 percent

Food inflation in the NCR continued its fourth consecutive month of deceleration, easing from 2.4 percent in April 2025 to 2.2 percent in May 2025, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point.

The deceleration of food inflation in the region was mainly attributed to the rice index, which recorded an annual decline of negative 9.1 percent in May 2025, compared to a negative 6.9 percent in the previous month. This commodity group accounted for 64.5 percent share of the overall downward trend in food inflation in the NCR. Followed by the slower annual growth rates in the indices of fish and other seafood at 5.0 percent in May 2025 from 6.1 percent in April 2025; and Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c., at 2.2 percent during the month, from 
3.4 percent in the previous month.

Conversely, higher annual increases were observed in the indices of the following food groups in May 2025:

1. Corn, 15.2 percent;

2. Fruits and nuts. 5.0 percent;

3. Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses, 4.9 percent;

4. Oils and fats, 0.2 percent;

5. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, 7.3 percent;

6. Milk, other dairy products, and eggs, 4.8 percent; and

7. Sugar, confectionery, and desserts, -1.2 percent.

The flour, bread, and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals remained at their annual rate in May 2025.
 

Peso purchasing power remains at 0.81

The Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP) in the region increased to 0.81 in May  2025 as compared to the previous month. This indicates that the real value of PhP1.00 in 2018 prices is equivalent to PhP0.81 in May 2025. PPP in NCR was higher at 0.82 in May 2024, reflecting a gradual loss in the peso’s purchasing power over the past year. (Figure 3)

The PPP is inversely related to the CPI; thus, an increase in the CPI will result in a decrease in the PPP. 
 

(Sgd.) PACIANO B. DIZON
Regional Director